TANTALUS
OR
THE FUTURE OF MAN
TANTALUS
OR
Fellow and Tutor of
Corpus Christ i College, Oxford
London
EGAN PAUL, TRENCH, TRUBNER & CO., LTD,
Broadway House : 68-74 Carter Lane, E,C.
1926
First edition September 1924
Printed in Great Britain by
W. P. Robinson & Co., Ltd., at The Library Press, Lowest©
PREFACE
I rather anticipate that superficial
critics who do not like the argument of
this essay will accuse it of pessimism, a
charge which perhaps means little more
than that they do not like it. Nevertheless,
it may be worth while to point out,
(i) that pessimism is not a logical objection
to a contention of which the truth cannot
otherwise be questioned, and (2) that
though the argument of Tantalus may be
said generally to corroborate that of
Daedahis and Teams, yet its conclusion is
much less pessimistic than theirs, because
(3) it makes it very plain that the evils
which threaten the future of mankind
are in no case unavoidable. If it is called
[5]
PREFACE
* pessimism ' to point out the methods
by which men may escape destruction,
because men do not care to adopt them»
I suppose it must be ' optimism " to rush
violently and open-eyed down a precipice
and to expect to be saved by a miracle.
Certainly such would appear to be the
belief upon which human affairs are at
present conducted.
F.C.S.S.
[ 6 ]
TANTALUS
PROLOGUE : THE ORACLE
OF THE DEAD
When I read in Mr Haldane’s Daeda-
lus the wonderful things that Science
was going to do for us, and in Mr Russell's
Icarus how easily both we and it might
come to grief in consequence, it at once
became plain to me that of all the
heroes of antiquity Tantalus would be
the one best fitted to prognosticate the
probable future of Man. For, if we
interpret the history of Daedalus as
meaning the collapse of Minoan civiliza-
tion under the strain imposed on its
[ 7 ]
TANTALUS
moral fibre by material progress, and
the fate of Icarus as meaning man’s
inability to use the powers of the air
without crashing, one could gauge the
probability that history would repeat
itself still further, and that man would
once more allow his vices to cheat him
of the happiness that seemed so clearly
within his reach.
I determined, however, to confirm
this intelligent forecast by consulting
Tantalus himself. To consult the ora-
cle of a dead hero, it was, I knew, only
necessary to undergo the process of
‘ incubation,' a sort of camping out on
his tomb, in the sHn of a sacrificial
beast; and fortunately the tomb of
Tantalus had just been discovered in
Phrygia by the archaeologists of the
British School at Athens.
[ 8 ]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
I set out, therefore, with great
promptitude, and in due course arrived
at the ruins of the tomb of Tantalus.
They did not much resemble a first-
class hotel, and, of course, my idea of
an • incubation ’ was well laughed at,
but I managed to find a pretty level
corner, more or less sheltered from the
wind. Here I wrapped myself up in my
excellent rug, having decided to dis-
pense with the more correct method of
ensconcing myself in the gory hide of a
sacrificial ox. The night was fine,
though cold, and fortunately there were
no mosquitoes, nor any of the other
insects one would inevitably have en-
countered in the dwellings of the living.
But the ground was very, very, hard,
and I tossed about for hours, regretting
my classical education and the psychi-
[ 0 ]
TANTALUS
cal researcher’s rashness in trying foolish
experiments.
At last I fell asleep — at least I suppose
so. I also fell a great deal further. I
seemed to go right through my rocky
bed, and to fall down, down, down,
interminably, through a sort of elastic
space. When at last the not wholly
unpleasant moti onstopped, I found
myself in a vast, grey, sandy plain,
illuminated by a cold grey light as
though of dawn. The only thing to
catch the eye was a small round
hummock, not very far from me. On
it grew a mighty tree, with dark green
pointed leaves and drooping branches,
surrounded by a gleaming white fence
or paling. I naturally walked towards
it.
As I got near, I noticed that the
[ 10 ]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
white paling, which completely enclosed
the hummock, was composed of hones, or
rather of every imaginable sort of spine,
tooth, and sting, garnished with the
saws and swords of sawfish and sword-
fish, and all knit together into an im-
penetrable cheval de frise that prevented
approach to the foot of the tree. The
soil all round this strange hedge had
apparently been trodden into deep mud
by some creature that had walked
round and round the tree, and the
water required for its manufactmre was
supplied by a small spring which rose
within the enclosure and flowed out
through its interstices.
As I walked round the tree to the
further side of the hummock, I came
upon an extraordinary sight. I beheld
a naked man trying to reach some of
[II]
TANTALUS
the fruit that dangled down from the
outer branches of the tree but appeared
to be just out of his reach, and so intent
upon his design that he did not notice
my approach. He seemed a tall man,
and the upper part of his body was well
formed. His features were good and
regular, though somewhat hard, and
not intellectual ; his resolute jaw
bespoke the man of action, accustomed
to command and to be obeyed. So
far, his appearance would have done
credit to any modem captain of indus-
try. But the lower half of his body
appeared to be misshapen. His'thighs
were so curved that he could not walk
upright, but had to stoop and lean
forward as he slowly shambled along.
Still more monstrous seemed the feet,
with which he churned up the mud
[ 12 ]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
around the fence ; they were enormous
and hardly seemed human in their
shape, though they were too deeply
plunged in the mud to permit one to
see what exactly was wrong with them.
This strange being, whom the bold
intuition of the dream-consciousness
at once identified with Tantalus, was
evidently tr3dng to grasp the fruit that
hung from the lower branches of the
tree. For a while his efforts were vain,
but then a gust of wind brought within
his reach a large conical shining red
fruit he had long coveted. It was one
of the strange features of the tree that
it was covered with fruit, and higher
up also with flowers, of the most
various sizes, shapes, and colours. He
seized it triumphantly ; but the effect
was surprising. For he had hardly
[13 j
TANTALUS
touched it when it exploded, and
covered him from head to foot with
its blood-red juice. He at once sank
senseless to the ground. But, after a
while, he slowly recovered, and recom-
menced his old game. This time, he
attacked a large round yellowish fruit ;
but when he succeeded in seizing it,
it too exploded, and poured out upon
him volumes of a heavy yellow-green
vapour. Again he collapsed, and this
time his stupor lasted longer.
By the time he began to stir again
I had, I thought, grasped the situation,
and determined to intervene. So I
drew near, and addressed him : “ Can
I be mistaken in thinking that I see
before me the far-famed hero, Tantalus,
boon companion of the gods ? ” “And
their victim.” “ And what tree is
[143
THE FUTURE OF MAN
this, I pray you, about which you busy
yourself ? ’* The Tree of Knowledge.”
“ And the water, which you have
trampled into mud, is what ? " “ xhe
Elixir of Life.” “ Then you seem to
have all the materials for a happy life.
Why don’t you eat of the fruits of the
tree, and drink of the. elixir ? " « you
have seen the results of my efforts.”
“ I cannot but think you have been
unfortunate in your choice of the fruits :
there are many that look much better
higher up.” “ And how am I to get
at them ? ” “ Well, of course, you
must break through all these debris of
former animal life, which bar your
access to the trunk of the tree, and
prevent you from drinking of the
water of life ; after that, you can climb
up the tree, and pick the best of the
[15]
TANTALUS
fruits,” ” And how am I to break
through the barrier of bones ? ” “ Even
though you appear to have no instru-
ments, you can surely find a stone ? ”
“ Where shall I find a stone in the Plain
of Forgetfulness ? And besides, how
should I climb the tree with these
feet ? ” And he lifted up one
of his monstrous limbs. “ Certainly
you seem to be pretty badly earth-
bound,” said I, ” but I will try to find
you some stones.”
So off I set, I had not got far when a
fierce blast struck me and peppered me
with sand. I struggled stoutly against
it, but was nearly choked. And then,
suddenly, I awoke to find that day was
dawning and that the wind had gone
round to the north, and was blowing in
my face. But I was well satisfied with
[i6]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
my experiment. The interpretation of
the response I had obtained from
Tantalus was too plain to need the
aid of a psycho-analyst.
I
Our best prophets are growing very
anxious about our future. They are
afraid we are getting to know too
much, and are likely to use our know-
ledge to commit suicide, or rather,
mutual murder, after the fashion of
the Kilkenny cats.
To these dismal forecasts it is reason-
able to reply that there is nothing novel
in the present situation. The human
race has always known enough to
wreck itself, and its abounding folly
has always inspired its wise men with
the gravest apprehension for its future.
Yet, either by chance or providence,
it has always known also how to avoid
destruction. It has never known
enough to make itself happy ; nor
[i8]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
does it know enough to do so now. Its
future has always been precarious
because it has always been uncertain
whether it would use its knowledge
well or ill, to improve or to ruin itself.
It has always had a choice between
alternative policies, and it has so now.
What sense then is there in making
such a fuss about the present crisis ?
It is a particularly plain case of the
perennial choice of Hercules, What is
needed is just a little clear thinking and
plain speaking to a society more than
usually debauched by a long regime of
flattery, propaganda, and subterfuge.
Mankind can make a fool of itself, as
it always could ; if it does, its blood
will be on its own head. For it has
knowledge enough to avoid the dangers
that threaten it, if it will use its
knowledge properly.
[19]
II
The first fact to be enunciated
plainly, and faced, until it grows
familiar, and its import is appreciated,
is that, biologically speaking, Man has
ceased to be a progressive species long
ago. The evolutionary impetus which
carried our ancestors from the level
of the ape or even of the lemur, through
such subhuman types as Pithecan-
thropus, and the Heidelberg and Nean-
dertal men, to ‘ modern ’ man, seems
to have spent itself by the middle of
the palaeolithic period, i.e. say, thirty
thousand years ago. At any rate, the
Cro-Magnon people of the Aurignacian
age, who then appeared upon the scene,
were in no wise inferior to any subse-
quent race of men, either in stature or
[ 20 ]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
in brain capacity. They averaged six
feet three inches in height, with one-
sixth more brains than the modem
European. So far indeed as their
physical remains can indicate, they
seem to have been very definitely the
finest race of human beings that has
ever existed. If we have improved on
them, it has probably been only in
such minor matters as resistance to the
microbes of the many diseases which
flourish among dense populations under
slum conditions. Against that proba-
bility have to be set such certainties
as that our toes and many of our
muscles are being atrophied and that
we are getting more liable to caries and
baldness.
This remarkable fact of the arrest
of his biological development is certain-
[ai]
TANTALUS
ly the greatest mystery in the history
of Man. It at once raises two further
questions : In the first place, how did
it happen, and what caused it ? And,
secondly, what has enabled man, never-
theless, to progress in other respects,
in knowledge, in power, and in culture ?
To answer the first question we
cannot do better than argue back from
what is now the most salient feature
about man’s biological position, namely
that his survival is determined far more
by his relations to the social group
to which he belongs than by personal
efficiency : hence he can draw on the
collective resources of his tribe, and,
to a growing extent, gets emancipated
from the control of natural selection.
Thus social selection and the survival
of societies proformdly modify (and
[ 22 ]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
often defeat), the working of natural
selection. The advantages are obvious ;
it is no longer essential for a member of
a society that collectively controls the
conditions of existence to develop any
high degree of personal capacity, in
order to survive. A single wise and
provident minister, Uke Joseph, is
enough to keep alive millions of
Pharaoh’s subjects through the lean
years of famine. But the inferior and
incompetent survive with the rest.
Now, if we suppose that by mid-
palaeolithic times man had established
his ascendency over nature and per-
fected his social organization sufl&dently
to render these services to his fellows,
we have suggested a possible cause of
the cessation of biological progress.
For social influences are as likely as not
[23]
TANTALUS
to be ‘ contra-selective/ that is, to tend
to preserve by preference the stocks
which are less viable from a merely
biological point of view. They are
markedly so at present, and it would
be asking too much to expect the tribal
chiefs of early men to have been wise
and provident enough to see to it that
their social institutions were eugenical
in their effects. We cannot even now
find such a pitch of wisdom and provi-
dence in the controllers of our destinies.
[ 24 ]
Ill
The answer to the second question
is much easier. The human race has
continued to progress in its culture, in
its knowledge, in its power over nature,
because it has devised institutions
which have created for it a continuous
social memory that defies death. Now,
as ever, the wisest and the best must
die, while their place is taken by babies
bom as ignorant and void of knowledge
as in the beginning. Only there has
been invented apparatus which relieves
the civilized baby of his hereditary
ignorance, and renders him potentially
the heir to all the wisdom of the ages.
In the first place, Language not only
extends enormously the possibilities of
[23]
TANTALUS
co-operation and common action, but
also renders possible the consolidation
of customs and their preservation by
oral tradition. In the next place,
Writing enables a society to record all
that it considers worth remembering.
Upon these two inventions may be
reared vast intricate structures,religious,
political, social, and scientific, which
knit together and dominate human
societies from generation to generation,
and create the conditions for an almost
mechanical accumulation of knowledge.
Man has thereby become an educable
creature and fallen a victim to the arts
of the examiner. Provided the mechan-
isms of education do not get out of
gear, it is hard to set limits to the
amounts of knowledge with which he
can be crammed ; but it is clear that
[26]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
they are far greater than he could
ever have acquired in a lifetime for
himself. And as education (of sorts)
has now become world wide, it might
seem that the future of knowledge
was now assured, and no longer hable
to setbacks such as those due to the
famous burning of the library of
Alexandria at the command of the
Caliph Omar, or the extinction of the
only Greek scientists who seriously
concerned themselves with the applica-
tions of science to life, of Archimedes
and his School, in the sack of Syracuse.
At any rate, it seemed clear that pro-
gress in knowledge could continue
indefinitely, even in an otherwise
stationary or decadent society.
Whoever argued thus would fail
to make sufficient allowance for the
[27]
TANTALUS
perversity of human nature. Human
institutions, like the human body, are
ever tending to get clogged with the
waste products of their own working.
Hence, so far from performing the
functions for which they were intended,
they are constantly becoming the most
formidable instruments for their frus-
tration. Experience shows how easily
Churches become the most effective
deadeners of religious zeal, how often
Law becomes the negation of justice,
how deadly is the School to the inborn
craving for knowledge which seemed
to Aristotle so characteristic of man’s
nature.
Accordingly, no one familiar with the
actual working of academic institutions
is likely to fall into the error of pinning
his faith to them. They are, of course,
[28]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
designed for the purpose of preserving
and promoting the highest and most
advanced knowledge hitherto attained :
but do they anywhere fulfil this pur-
pose ? Its execution must of necessity
be left to professors not exempt from
human frailty, always selected by more
or less defective methods, whose inter-
ests by no means coincide with those
of their subjects. The interest of
the subject is to become more widely
understood and so more influential.
The interest of the professor is to become
more unassailable, and so more authori-
tative. He achieves this by becoming
more technical. For the more technical
he gets, the fewer can comprehend
him ; the fewer are competent to
criticize him, the more of an oracle
he becomes ; if, therefore, he wishes
[29]
TANTALUS
fi >i HU ('Uby life of undisturbed academic
leisuie, the more he will indulge his
natural tendency to grow more tech-
nical as his knowledge grows, the
more he will turn away from those
aspects of his subject which have any
direct practical or human interest.
H<; will wi'ap himself in mysteries of
technical jargon, and become as nearly
as possible unintelligible. Truly, as
William J tunes once exclaimed to me,
apropos of tlio policy of certain philos-
ophers, “ the natural enemy of any
subject is the professor thereof ! ” It
is clear that if these tendencies are
allowed to prevail, every subject must
in com'se of time become unteachable,
and not worth learning.
Thus educational systems become
the chief enemies of education, and
[30]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
seats of learning the chief obstacles
to the growth of knowledge, while
in an otherwise stagnant or decadent
society these tendencies sooner or later
get the upper hand and utterly corrupt
the social memory. The power of
the professor is revealed not so much
by the things he teaches, as by the
things he fails or refuses to teach.
History is full of examples. How
many religions have not perished from
ritual sclerosis, how many sciences
have not been degraded into pseudo-
sciences or games ! Logic has been
just examinable nonsense for over
two thousand years. The present
economic chaos in the world has been
indirectly brought about by the policy
adopted by the professors of economics
forty or fifty years ago, to suit their
[31]
TANTALUS
own convenience. For thej- then de-
cided that they must escape from the
unwelcome attentions of the public by
becoming more ' scientific ’ ; i.e. they
ceased to express themselves in plain
language and took to mathematical
formulae and curves instead ; with
the result that the world promptly
relapsed into its primitive depths of
economic ignorance. So soon as the
professors had retired from it, every
economic heresy and delusion, which
had been exposed and uprooted by
Adam Smith, at once revived and
flourished. In one generation econo-
mics disappeared completely from the
public ken and the political world,
and the makers of the Peace Treaties
of 1919 were so incapable of imder-
standing an economic argument that
[323
THE FUTURE OF MAN
not even the lucid intelligence of
Mr Keynes could dissuade them from
enacting the preposterous conditions
which rendered impossible the realiza-
tion of their aims.* Nor was it so very
long ago that, in order to save the
Mathematical Tripos at Cambridge,
it had to be recast, because it had
degenerated into an intellectual jig-saw
puzzle, wholly unrelated to the applica-
tions of mathematics to the other
sciences. To avoid jealousies, I hasten
to add that the University of Oxford,
which has organized itself as an asylum
for lost causes, skilfully cultivates,
by means of its classical and historical
* The most absurd perhaps was the clause,
appearing in all the Peace Treaties, which made
^ reparations ’ a first charge on all the assets of
the defeated countries. This, of course, com
pletely destroyed their credit, and incapacitated
them from raising a loan, forcing them to have
recourse to progressive inflation, and so into
bankruptcy.
[ 33 ]
TANTALUS
studies, a backward-looking bias in
its alumni. The true ‘ Greats ’ man
is meant to go down indelibly imbued
with the conviction that in matters
of morals and politics nothing of import-
ance has been discovered or said since
Plato and Aristotle, and that nothing
else matters.
Clearly then we cannot take for
granted that in any society knowledge
can progress without limits, nor can
we count on our academic institutions
to save us from stagnation and decay,
even in matters of knowledge. All
institutions are social mechanisms, and
aU mechanisms need a modicum of
intelligent supervision, in the absence
of which they become dangerous en-
gines of destruction.
[ 34 ]
IV
It appears then that we can extract
no guarantee of progress either from
the nature of Man or from the nature
of human institutions. There is no
law of progress, if by law be meant
a superior power able to coerce the
creatures that are said to ' obey ’ it.
Neither can we extract from history
any proof of the superiority of civilized
man over his uncivilized ancestors.
Such progress as has been attained
has been achieved only by the active
co-operation of the progressive
organisms : every step has been fought
for, and progress has ceased whenever
[35]
TANTALUS
effort ceased, or was switched off into
different directions.
Consequently, modem man has no
right to ‘ boast himself far better than
his fathers ’ — ^in intrinsic quality. In-
trinsically, i.e. apart from the effects
of culture and social training, it is
probable that he is slightly in[enor
in capacity to his own ancestors,
while very markedly inferior to the
great races of antiquity (like the
Greeks) in their hey-day. Nor is there
any reason to suppose that his moral
nature has changed materially. Modern
man may be a little tamer and better-
tempered, because he has been herded
together much more closely than primi-
tive man, and city life, even in slums,
demands, and produces, a certain
■urbanity.’ For many generations
[36]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
those who would not pack tight and
coiild not stand the strain of constantly
exhibiting ‘ company manners ’ and
accommodating their action to those
of their fellows, must have fled away
into the wilds, where they could be
independent, or have eUminated them-
selves in other ways, e.g. by committing
murder. It is probable that the social
history of Iceland, settled as it was
by unbridled individuahsts who would
not brook any form of organized
government, might tlirow some light
on this process of taming the individual.
Nevertheless there is little doubt
that, in the main, humanity is still
Yahoo-manity. Alike in mentality
and in moral, modem man is still sub-
stantially identical with his palaeolithic
ancestors He is still the irrational,
137J
TANTALUS
impulsive, emotional, foolish, des-
tructive, cruel, credulous, creature he
always was. Normally the Yahoo
in him is kept under control by the
constant pressure of a variety of social
institutions ; but let anything upset
an established social order, and the
Yahoo comes to the front at once. The
history of the past fifty years abund-
antly proves that man is still capable
of atrocities equal to any in his record
Not only have we lived through the
greatest political and the deadliest nat-
ural convulsion, the Great War and
the Tokio earthquake, but the Russian
Revolution has outdone the French,
and Landru the legendary Bluebeard,
while for mingled atrocity and baseness
the murders of Rasputin and of Alex-
ander of Serbia are unsurpassed in
[ 38 ]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
history. The painM truth is that
civilization has not improved Man’s
moral nature. His moral habits are still
mainly matters of custom, and the
effect of moral theories is nugatory
ever5where. Thus civilization is not
even skin deep ; it does not go deeper
than the clothes.
V
Clearly it is risky to expose the
inelastic nature of so stubbornly con-
servative a creature to new conditions
at a rapid rate. He may not be able
to adapt himself quicldy enough, and
his old reactions, which did Uttle or
no harm before, may become extremely
dangerous. Yet this is just what
has happened. Science has exposed
the palax)lithic savage masquerading
in modern garb to a series of physical
and mental shocks which have endang-
ered his equilibrium. It has also enor-
mously extended his power and armed
him with a variety of delicate and
penetrating instruments which have
[403
THE FUTURE OF MAN
often proved edge tools in his hands
and which the utmost wisdom could
hardly be trusted to use aright. Under
these conditions the lighting instinct
ceases to he an anti(]uatod foible, like
the hunting instinct, and liecomos a
deadly danger. No wonder the more
prescient are dismayed at the prospect
of the old sa\’agt‘ passions running
amok in the full panoply of civilization !
[41]
VI
Nor is this the final item in our tale
of woe. A third and most sinister fact
which has to be faced is that Civiliza-
tion, as at present constituted, is very
definitely a deteriorating agency, con-
ducing to the degeneration of mankind.
This effect of Civilization is nothing
new, but has been operating, it would
seem, from the beginning, though not
probably as intensively as now : its
discovery, however, is very recent. It
is quite indirect, unintended, and fortui-
tous, but cumulative, and in the long
run has probably been a chief cause
in the decay of States and civilizations,
as well as an important factor in the
[42]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
arrest of biological development which
we have had to recognize.
A simple and easily observable socio-
logical fact is at the bottom of the
mischief. The different classes in a
society have different birth-rates and
death-rates, and the differences be-
tween these yield their several net
rates of increase or decrease. Now,
whereas under the conditions of savage
life class differences can hardly exist
or, at least cannot be accentuated, so
that the whole tribe flourishes or
perishes together, and among bar-
barians the upper classes have a very-
great advantage and the tribe recruits
itself chiefly from the children of the
chiefs, because the conditions of life
are so severe that the lower classes
are not able to rear many cMdren ; in
143 ]
TANTALUS
civilized societies these conditions are
reversed. It is found that though both
birth-rates and death-rates grow as we
descend the social scale, so does the net
rate of increase. Indeed, the highest or
ruling class nowhere appears to keep
up its numbers without considerable
recruitment from below. So society, as
at present organized, is ahvays dying
off at the top, and proliferating at the
bottom, of the social pyramid.
The disastrous consequences of this
sort of social organization may easily be
apprehended, with a little reflection,
i) All societies, even those whose social
structure is most rigid, have need of
ability, discover it, and reward it by
social promotion. But (2) as this pro-
motion means passing into a class with
a relatively inadequate rale of repro-
[44]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
duction, the biological penalty attach-
ing to social promotion is racial
extinction. Thus (3) the ultimate
reward of merit is sterilization, and
society appears to be an organization
devoted to the suicidal task of extirpa-
ting any ability it may chance to
contain, by draining it away from any
stratum in which it may occur, pro-
moting it into the highest, and there
destroying it. It is exactly as though
a dairyman should set in motion
apparatus for separating the cream
from the milk, and then, as it rose,
skim it off, and throw it away !
At present it is calculated that the
highest classes in the chief civilized
societies only reproduce themselves to
the extent of fifty per cent, of their
number in each generation, so that the
[45]
TANTALUS
herediUiry ability of half of tlieni is
lost in each generation. But even then
the remainder is largely wasted. It is
churned into froth and scum by social
forces. For neither now nor at any
time has social intelligence showm itself
equal to devising a training for the
youth of the highe.st classes that would
provide them with adequate stimuli
to develop their faculties, and to lead
a strenuous life of social service. The
children of the rich are tempted to live
for ‘ society ’ in the narrower sense,
which means frittering away one’s life
on a round of vacuous amusement ; and
they rarely resist the temptation.
Naturally it is difficult to trace the
accumulation of ability in the upper
social strata which is theoretically to
be expected. On the other hand, in
[46]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
some subjects at any rate, the symp-
toms of a world-wide dearth of ability
are becoming unmistakable. The Great
War, though it made abundantly mani-
fest the prevalence of incompetents in
high places, did not reveal the existence
either of a great general or of a great
statesman anywhere.
It is superfluous to insist either on
the fatuity of a social organization such
as this, or on the certainty of racial
degeneration which it entails : but it
may be well to draw attention to the
rapidity with which these degenerative
processes are at present sapping the
vitality and value of our civilized races.
The failure to reproduce does not, as
in former times, affect merely the
aristocracy in the highest social strata ;
it has spread to the whole of the pro-
[47]
TANTALUS
fossional and middle classes, and to most
classes of skilled labour. It is not too
much to say that, with the exception
of the miners, none of the desirable
elements in the nation are doing their
bit to keep up the population, and that
its continued growth is mainly due to
the unrestrained breeding of the casual
labourers and the feeble-minded.
In the rest of the population its
increase is checked by birth-control
and the postponement of marriage,
neither of which affects the undesir-
ables. They are too stupid, reckless,
and ignorant to practise the former, and
have nothing to gain by the latter.
Also, to make it quite certain that they
shall form a true ‘proletariate,’ the
wisdom of our rulers ordains that a
knowledge of birth-control shall be a
[48]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
(fatal) privilege reserved for the intelli-
gent and well-to-do. They instruct
the police to prevent it from penetrating
to the poor and stupid — apparently
from the mistaken idea that the State
needs plenty of cheap labour and cheap
cannon-fodder. So child-bearing re-
mains compulsory for the wretched
women of the poor, whereas elsewhere
only those women produce children
who desire them, and natural selection
is thus allowed gradually to eliminate
the temperament of the unwilling (and,
therefore, probably less competent)
mother.
The dysgenic effects of this class-
discrimination are further intensified
by other tendencies ; (i) The advance
of medicine and hygiene has enormously
diminished selective mortality in all
[49]
TANTALUS
dasses, and improved the chances of
weaklings to survive and leave descen-
dants. (2) The advance of philan-
thropy preserves them, espedally in
the lower classes, where formerly the
mortality was largely selective and a
high death-rate both counteracted an
excessive birth-rate and increased the
value of the survivors. The emotional
appeal of ‘ baby-saving ’ goes so
directly to the heart of civihzed man
that his head never reflects whether the
particular baby is worth saving, and
whether a baby from a different breed
and with a better pedigree would not
be better worth having. (3) Modern
obstetrics save the lives of thousands
of women, whose physique is such that
in former times they would inevitably
have died in child-birth. The result is
[ 50 ]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
that child-birth is becoming more diffi-
cult. Also babies brought up on the
bottle, which has an irresistible attrac-
tion for microbes of all sorts, are apt to
be less healthy than those nourished in
the more primitive manner.
(4) Lastly, the bastardizing, which
used formerly to provide for a con-
siderable infusion of the blood of
the upper classes into the lower, has
now practically ceased. Since the
merry days of King Charles II, very
few noble families of royal descent have
been added to the peerage.
VII
Our civilization, therefore, carries
within it the seeds of its own decay and
destruction, and it does not require high
prophetic gifts to predict the future of a
race which goes the way marked out
for it by such perversely suicidal insti-
tutions. It cannot improve, but must
degenerate, and the only question
would seem to be whether the deca-
dence of Man will leave him viable as
a biological species. At present it
looks very much as though his blind
leaders would lead their blinder follow-
ers from catastrophe to catastrophe,
through imperialist world-wars to class-
wars and to race-wars : but even if, by
some miraculous rally of human intelli-
[52]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
gence, these convulsions should be
averted, the prospect will not really be
improved. The violent destruction of
the human race by war will only be
more dramatic : it will not be more
fatal than its gradual decay as its arts
and sciences slowly fossihze, or peter
out, in an overwhelming flood of feeble-
mindedness.
[53]
VIII
This is the one alternative. We shall
get to it, if we go on as we are going ;
but it is not our doom. The alternative
is to exorcize the danger by an adequate
reform of human nature and of human
institutions. This again seems attain-
able in at least two ways.
The first, and more paradoxical, of
these would make a direct frontal
attack on the palaeolithic Yahoo, and
try to bring about his moral reforma-
tion. The means for this purpose are
ready to hand. Christian ethics have
been in being, as a moral theory, for
nearly two thousand years. If the
Yahoo could be really christianized, he
would at any rate cease to cut his own
154 ]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
throat in cutting his neighbour’s. And
it is astonishing how much scientific
support is forthcoming for the para-
doxes of Christian ethics. It is an
historical fact that the meek have a
knack of inheriting the earth after
their lords and masters have killed
each other off, and that passive resis-
tance wears out the greatest violence,
and conscientious objection defeats the
craftiest opportunism, if only you can
get enough of them. It is a biological
fact that the rabbit survives better
than the tiger ; and the same would
appear to be true of the human ‘ rabbit ’
and the Niet^schean ‘ wild beast.’
Intrinsically, therefore, Christian ethics
might be well worth trying.
I wish I could believe it likely that this
policy will be tried. But the palaeolithic
[55]
TANTALUS
Yahoo has been dosed with Christian
ethics for two thousand years, and they
have never either impressed or im-
proved him. Their paradoxes give him
a moral shock, and he has not brains
enough to grasp their rationality. He
will exclaim rather with the gallant
admiral in the House of Commons,
when justly indignant at the unheard-of
notion that a ‘ moral gesture ’ of a
Labour Government might be the best
policy, “ Good God, sir, if we are to
rely for our air security on the Sermon
on the Mount, all I can say is, ‘ God
help ws ’ ! ” Besides, the proposal to
put Christian principles into practice
would be bitterly opposed by all the
Churches in Christendom.*
* This does mean, of course, that there are
no Christians in the Churches, but only that they
are not in control of these institutions.
[561
THE FUTURE OF MAN
It may be more prudent, therefore,
to try a safer though slower way, that
of the eugenical reform and recon-
struction of our social organization.
As to the possibilities in this direction,
I incline to be much more hopeful than
either Mr Haldane or Mr Russell.
Mr Haldane despises eugenics, because
he is looking for the more spectacular
advent of the ‘ ectogenetic baby,’ to be
the Saviour of mankind. But he might
not aiTive, or be seriously delayed in
transmission, or fail to come up to
Mr Haldane’s expectations ; and, mean-
while, we cannot afford to wait.
Mr Russell distrusts eugenics, because
he fears that any eugenical scheme put
into practice will be ‘ nobbled ’ by our
present ruling rings, and perverted into
an instrumonL to consolidate their
[57]
TANTALUS
power. He thinks that dissent from
dominant beliefs and institutions will
be taken as proof of imbecility, and
sterilized accordingly,* and that the
result would merely be to spread over
aU the world the hopeless uniformity
and commonplaceness of the ideals and
practice of the American business man,
as depicted by Mr Sinclair Lewis.
This prognostication would be very
plausible, if we supposed eugenics to be
introduced into the social structure
from above, privily, and in small doses,
and by way of administrative order, as
under the existing Acts to check the
spread of feeble-mindedness.
But this method would be impractic-
able. It would not generate anything
like the social momentum necessary to
♦ Icafus^ p. 49.
[58]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
carry through any radical reform. To
make it effective, it would have to be
backed by a powerful, enthusiastic,
and intelligent public sentiment. This
presupposes that the public has been
biologically educated to appreciate the
actual situation, and has been thoroughly
wrought up about the fatuity of our
social order, and imderstands what is
wrong with it. If it understands that
much, it can also be made to see that it
is fantastic to expect to leap to the
Ideal State by a social revolution.
No one now knows what the institu-
tions of an Ideal State would be like,
nor how they would work. We only
know that they will have to be evolved
out of our present institutions, even
as the Superman has to be evolved
out of the primitive Yahoo. In either
[ 59 ]
TANTALUS
case, the process will be gradual, and
its success will depend upon details, on
taking one step after another at the
right rate in the right direction, making
a new adjustment here, overcoming
an old difficulty there, removing ob-
stacles, smoothing over the shell-holes
and scars dating from Man’s lurid
past, and, in general, feeling one’s way
systematically and scientifically to
better things. Such a mode of pro-
gression may seem unheroic, but it
has the great advantage that it is
unlikely to go irretrievably wrong.
If we know from the outset that we
are tentatively feeling our way, we shall
always be on the look out for traps
and possibilities of going astray, tr3dng
out the value of our policies by their
results, and willing to retrace our
[60]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
steps when we have made a false one.
The social temper, therefore, will
become far more intelligent and reason-
able than it has been hitherto. It
win be slow to dogmatize, and will
regard the toleration of differences
of opinion as among the cardinal
principles of a sanely progressive social
order. For as we can no longer assume,
with Plato and the other Utopians,
that •perfection may be postulated,
provision has always to be made for
the improvement of the social order.
It can never be accepted as absolutely
good, but must always be regarded as
capable, in principle, of being bettered.
Even the best of established institutions
are only good relatively to the
alternatives to which they showed
themselves superior : under changed
[61]
TANTALUS
conditions they may become inferior,
and may fail us, or ruin us, if we do
not make haste to transform them into
something better fitted to the new
conditions. Hence the social order must
be 'plastic, and must never be allowed
to grow rigid. There must always
be room in it for experiments that
have a reasonable prospect of turning
out to be improvements. For progress
will depend on the timely adoption
of such novelties.
But society has no means of com-
manding them at will. It has to wait
till they occur to some one. As bio-
logical variations have to arise
spontaneously before they can be
selected, so valuable new ideas have
to occur in a human mind before they
can be tried and approved. Society
[62]
THIO FUTURE OF MAX
cannot originate discovt-rios, it can
only refrain from so organizing itself
as to stamp them out when they occur.
It is vitallj* neccssarj^ therefore, that
we should beware of suppressing varia-
tions, whether of thought or of bodily
endowment, that may prove to be
valuable.
Also, of course, wc shall have to
realize that oin whole procedure is
essentially experimental, and all that
tliis implies. We do not know, at the
outset, what would be the best obtain-
able type, either of man or of society ;
true, but we mean to find out. Nor
is it unreasonable to expect to do so
as we go along. We start with a
pretty shrewd suspicion that certain
types, say the feeble-minded, the sickly,
the insane, ai-e undesirable, and that
[63]
TANTALUS
no good can come of coddling and culti-
vating them: we similarly are pretty sure
that certain other types, say the intelli-
gent, healthy, and energetic, are in-
herently superior to the former. We
try, therefore, to improve and increase
the better types. How precisely, and
how most effectively, we do not quite
know, though we can make pretty good
preliminary guesses. So we try. That
will entail experimentation in a variety
of directions, with ‘control experiments,’
and a modicum of mistakes. But
our mistakes will not be fatal, because
if we advance tentatively and with
intelligent apprehension, we shall reahze
them in time, and shall not feel bound
to persist in any course that yields
unsatisfactory results.
It is I'eally one of the great advan-
[64]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
tages of eugenics that it cannot proceed
upon any cut-and-dried scheme, but
will have to be guided by the results
of experiment and the fruits of exper-
ience, each of which will be followed
and discussed by an intensely inter-
ested public. For the difficulties of
eugenics are all difficulties of detail,
and intelligent attention to detail
may overcome them all. Thus the
dysgenical working of civilized society,
which has come about unintentionally
through the unfortunate convergence
of a number of tendencies, may be
altered similarly, by changing the
incidence of social forces.
[ 65 ]
IX
If scientific eugenics can put a stop
to the contra-selection incidental to
civilization, Man wiH recover the plas-
ticity and the progressiveness he once
possessed, and will be able to evolve
further — ^in whatever direction seems
to him best. We need not take alarm
at this possibility, for with his superior
knowledge he may surely be trusted to
make a better job of his evolution
than the Lemur and the Pithecan-
thropus, who were our progenitors and
managed to evolve into modem man.
But the process will necessarily be a
slow one, even though a comprehensive
scheme of eugenics will be providing
simultaneously two sources of improve-
[ 66 ]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
ment, by the elimination of defectives
at the bottom of the social scale, and
by the increase of ability at the top.
As, moreover, time presses, and sheer
destruction may overtake us before
eugenics have made much difference,
it would be highly desirable if some
means could be found to accelerate the
change of heart required. For this
purpose, I am much less inclined to put
my trust in the advance of phar-
macology than Mr Haldane and Mr
Russell. ^ Hitherto new drugs have
only meant new vices, sometimes (like
cocaine) of so fascinating a character
as to distract the whole police force
from their proper function of repressing
crime. So it seems legitimate to be
very sceptical about moral transforma-
* cf. Daedalus, p. 34 ; Icarus, p. 54.
[67]
TANTALUS
tion scenes to be wi-ought by pills and
injections.
On the other hand there does seem
to be a science from the possible pro-
gress of which something of a sen-
sational kind might not unreasonably
be expected. It is, moreover, the
science most directly concerned with
affairs of this sort. Psychology, the
science of human mentality, is, by
common consent, in a deplorably back-
ward state. It has remained a ground
for metaphysical excursions and a
playground for the arbitrary pedantries
of classificatory systematists. Its
efforts to become scientific have only
led it to ape assumptions and to borrow
notions found to be appropriate in
sciences with widely different problems
and objects. The results, as the
[ 68 ]
THE FUTURE OF MAN
psychologists themselves confess, are
meagre and disappointing ; which, of
of course, only proves that the borrowed
notions are inappropriate and incapable
of making Psychology into an effective
science. But if psychologists should
take it into their heads to settle down
to business, to recognize the primary
obligation of every science to develop
methods and conceptions capable of
working upon its subject-matter,
and so tried to authenticate their
‘ truth ’ after the ordinary fashion of
the other sciences, namely by the
pragmatic test of successful working,
some surprising effects might be elicited
even from the actual human mind.
For there is reason to suppose that
its present organization is very far
from being the best of which it is
[69]
TANTALUS
capable. It has come about in a very
haphazard manner, and we are not at
present making an3rthing like an
adequate use of aU our powers. Hence
by changing the gearing and re-arrang-
ing the traditional coupling, so to speak,
of our faculties, improvements might
conceivably be wrought which would
seem to us to border on the miracu-
lous. Thus a pragmatically efficient
Psychology might actually invert the
miracle of Circe, and really transform
the Yahoo into a man.
170 ]
I have endeavoured in this very
summary sketch to show that the
doom of Tantalus is by no means
unconditional, and that he can save
himself if he chooses, and that by no
superhuman effort, but merely by
recognizing facts that are right before
his nose and well within his com-
prehension, and by a little clear thinking
upon their import. But I would not
presume to predict that he will save
himself : history affords no un-
ambiguous guide. It seems to show
that something worse and something
better than what actually happens is
always conceivable, and that neither
our hopes nor our fears are ever fully
TANTALUS
realized. If so, poor Tantalus, hoping
against hope, fearing against reason,
may muddle along for a good while
yet, without repeating either his ancient
error of imagining that he could sup
with the gods, or his modern folly of
using his reason, as Goethe’s Mephis-
topheles declared, only to become more
bestial than any beast !
Occasionally iHxiShatea
t
I
Eachy poti 8vo, 2/6 net
TO-DAY AND
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^ most distinguished English thinkers,
scientists, philosophers, doctors, critics,
and artists, was at once recognized
as a noteworthy event. Written from
various points of view, one book frequently
opposing the argument of another, they
provide the reader with a stimulating
survey of the most modem thought in
many departments of life. Several
volumes are devoted to the future trend
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while others deal with particular pro-
vinces, and cover the future of Woman,
War, Population, Clothes, Wireless,
Morals, Drama, Poetry, Art, Sex, Law, etc.
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Daedalus, or Science and the Future.
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Seventh impression.
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— Westminster Gazette. ** The essay is brilliant,
sparkling with wit and bristling with
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■ — Morning Post.
Gallinicus, a Defence of Chemical War-
fare. By J. B. S. Haldane.
Second impression.
Mr. Haldane’s brilliant study.** — Times
Leading Article. ** A book to be read by every
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Icarus, or the Future of Science. By
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TO-DAY AND TO-MORROW
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F. C. S. ScriTLLKR, D.Sc., Fellow of
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that will be talked about.” — Daily Graphic.
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Thrasymachus, the Future of Morals.
By C. E.' M. JOAD, author of Common-
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— Times Literary Supplement. ” As outspoken
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vokes, with all the problems raised.'* — Sunday
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— Observer,
Hypatia, or Woman and Knowledge. By
Mrs Bertrand Russell. With a
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publicly said for a long time.” — Daily Herald,
” Everyone who cares at all about these things
should read it.” — Weekly Westminster.
Hephaestus, the Soul of the Machine.
By E. E. Fournier d’Albe, D.Sc.
* A worthy contribution to this interesting
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— Engineering. ” An exceedingly clever
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The Passing of the Phantoms : a Study
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By C. J. Patten, Professor of Anatomy,
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The Conquest of Cancer. By H. W. S.
Wright, m.s., f.r.c.s. Introduction
by F. G. Crookshank, m.d.
Eminently suitable for general reading,
'j’lie problem is fairly and lucidly presented.
One merit of Mr Wright*s plan is that he tells
people what, in his judgment, they can best
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Pygmalion, or the Doctor of the Future.
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Prometheus, or Biology and the Ad-
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Thamyris, or Is There a Future for
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Proteus, or the Future of Intelligence.
By Vernon Lee, author of ‘'Satan the
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Wireless Possibilities. By Professor
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w-e find thorn in this book.’*-— Statesman,
Perseus : of Dragons. By H. F. Scott
Stokes. With 2 illustrations.
** A diverting little book, chock-full of ideas.
Mr Stokes’ dragon-lore is both quaint and
v'anous,** — Mornmg Post. “ Very amusingly
written, and a mine of curious knowledge for
which the discerning reader will find many
uses.”—* Glasgow Herald.
Lycurgus, or the Future of Law, By
E, S. P. Haynes, author of Concerning
Solicitors, etc.
’*An interesting and concisely written book/*
— Yorkshire Post, *‘ He roundly declares that
English criminal law is a blend of barbaric
violence, medieval prejudices, and modem
fallacies. ... A humane and conscientious
investigation.** — Weekly, ** A thought-
ful book — deserves careful reading/* — Law
Times,
TO-DAY AND TO-MORROW
Euterpe, or the Future of Art. By
Lionel R. McColvin, author of “ The
Theory of Book-Selection.”
“ Discusses briefly, but very suggestively,
the problem of the future of art in relation to
the public." — Satufday Review. " Another
indictment of machinery as a soul-destroyer
. . . Mr. Colvin has the courage to suggest
solutions," — Westminster Gazette. " This is
altogether a much-needed book." — New
Leader.
Birth Control and the State : a Plea
and a Forecast. By C. P. Blacker,
M.C., M.A., M.R.C.S.. L.R.C.P.
‘ ‘ A very careful summary." — Times Literary
Supplement. " A temperate and scholarly
survey of the arguments for and against the
encouragement of the practice of birth control."
— Lancet. " He writes lucidly, moderately,
and from wide knowledge ; his book un-
doubtedly gives a better understanding of the
subject than any other brief account we know.
It also suggests a policy. — Saturday Review.
Atlantis, or America and the Future.
By Colonel J. F. C. Fuller.
" Candid and caustic." — Observer. " Many
hard things have been said about America,
but few quite so bitter and caustic as these."
•—^Daily Sketch. " He can conjure up possi-
bilities of a new Atlantis." — Clarion.
Midas, or the United States and the
Future. By C. H. Bretherton, author
of The Real Ireland/' etc.
A companion volume to Atlantis. " Full of
astute observations and acute reflections . . .
this wise and witty pamphlet, a provocation
to the thought that is creative." — Morning
Post. "A punch in every paragraph. One could
hardly ask for more ‘ meat — Spectator.
[ 8 ]
TO-DAY AND TO-MORROW
Nuntius, or Advertising and its Future.
By Gilbert Russell.
" F,xprossos the philosophy ot advertising
concistdy and well.” — Ohst'yvey. ” It is doubt-
iiil if a more straightforward exposition of
the part advertising plays m our public and
piiwato lite has been written .” — Manchester
Guard lit n.
Pegasus, or Problems of Transport.
By Colonel J. F. C. Fuller, author of
Hie Reformation of War,'* etc. With
8 Plates.
” The foremost militarv' prophet of the day
propounds a solution for industrial and
unemployment problems. It is a bold essay
. . . and calls tor the attention of all con-
cerned with imperial problems.” — Daily
Telfisnil>h. “ With a broad imaginative grasp
he finds the solution lu * tracked * vehicles.”
— Oaselie. ” Practical, timely,
very interesting and very important.” — J. St
Loe Strachey, in SpcctalOY.
Ouroboros, or the Mechanical Extension
of Mankind. By Garft Garrett.
” Foretells a day when machines will drive
the world to destruction.” — Daily Chronicle.
” tret OuYohovos and read it. It is a fascinating
study.” — Clarion. ** This stimulating, thought-
provoking essay.” — Aberdeen Press. ” A dis-
turbing book.” — Northern Whift. ” An out
standing book.” — Northern Echo.
Orpheus, or the Music of the Future. By
W. J. Turner, author of" Music and
Life.”
This imaginative essay by a poet who is
also a musician analyses the author's concep-
tion of music, its individuality, and its content
to the reader who is not a musician.
[9]
TO-DAY AND TO-MORROW
Plato’s American Republic. By J.
Douglas Woodruff.
“ This skit in the Platonic manner is full of
amusing things /' — The Times. Mr. Wood-
rufi in a satincal and amusing book imagines
Socrates' return to Athens after a lecture tour
in the States. . . Tins book is more than an
amusing skit. It is also the vehicle of critic-
isms so pertinent that one is curious to sec
how America will take them Anyway,
Socrates ought to be certain ol a great sale m
the States." — Standard.
Artifex, or the Future of Craftsmanship.
By John Gloag, author of “ Time,
Taste, and Furniture/’
After a suggestive sketch of the history of
craftsmanship, the author examines the
possibilities in the use of machinery to extend
craftsmanship and make beautiiuf articles of
commerce,
Sybilla, or the R(‘vival of Pro})hecy. Bv
C. A. Mace, University of St. Andrew’s.
An examination ot the possibilitie.s of
scientific forecasting, whh special reference to
certain volumes in this senes.
READY SHORTLY
Terpander^ or Music and the Future. By
Edward J. Dent.
Mr. Dent deals with the past, present, and
future of the art of music, and its relation to
the other arts in a clear and helplul manner.